By RICHARD HALSTEAD | rhalstead@marinij.com | Marin Independent Journal
PUBLISHED: May 15, 2021 at 5:10 p.m. | UPDATED: May 17, 2021 at 6:40 a.m.
A mountain biker rides along a stretch of the Gold Hill Fire in San Rafael on Saturday, May 15, 2021. (Sherry LaVars/Marin Independent Journal)
California posted a yearly decrease in population in 2020 for the first time in more than a century, and so did Marin County.
The state’s population dropped by 182,083 residents, or 0.46%, during 2020, according to population estimates and housing data released by the California Department of Finance. Marin’s population took an even bigger dip: It lost 2,614 residents, or 1% of its population, reducing its total to 257,774.
San Rafael, the Marin municipality with the biggest decrease, sustained a 0.6% loss, or 369 residents. Novato, which had a 0.1% decrease in its population, or 55 residents, was the Marin municipality with the smallest percentage loss.
Marin’s unincorporated area lost the highest percentage of residents, 2.6%, or 1,809 people.
“California as a whole had only three counties that did not experience population drop, so Marin County is not unique in that sense,” said Mike Blakeley, chief executive officer of the Marin Economic Forum.
“The implications in Marin of a shrinking population is that it could result in a diminishing workforce, which might make it more difficult for the economy to grow if labor is not readily available,” Blakeley said. “We already observe that employers are having difficulty hiring, especially at the lower wage levels, but this was also the case pre-pandemic so we would not attribute that to population decrease.”
Walter Schwarm, the state’s chief demographer, attributed the statewide drop in population to several factors. First, California continues to see declines in the “natural increase” of the population, he said. There were 24,000 more deaths than births in California in 2020. This trend was amplified by 51,000 deaths to COVID-19 in the state last year.
Schwarm said Marin County had 2,138 deaths last year compared with 2,073 births. That included more than 100 deaths from COVID-19.
Schwarm said another important factor leading to the population decrease was federal policy, including restrictions on H-1B and other visas, and global lockdowns that prevented international immigration during the pandemic. He said this resulted in 53,000 fewer international students in California during 2020.
The Bay Area Council wrote on its website that the population report “shows the nine-county Bay Area total population stagnating between July 2019 and July 2020. Notably, net domestic migration (movement between states) continued its growing negative trend, with a loss of 63,000 residents over the 12-month period.”
The 2020 data also indicate that California residents are moving from the coast to inland counties, Schwarm said.
According to the Public Policy Institute of California, approximately 6.1 million people left California during the 2010s, while 4.9 million moved in.
Cynthia Murray, chief executive of the North Bay Leadership Council, said Marin’s population decrease “represents a further hollowing out of the middle class.”
“If you look at who is leaving, it is the younger workforce that is seizing the opportunity to move to where they can afford to buy a home and raise their family,” she said. “The exodus of the younger middle class workers is accelerating with the new options of being able to work from home or need to go to the office infrequently.
“Marin is, and will be, challenged to fill jobs that require people to be at the worksite,” Murray said. “With a lot of job openings, and talent in short supply, there will need to be an increase in wages and benefits to be competitive.”
The Department of Finance report also included new housing data, saying 103,073 new residences were created in the state last year. It was the first year since 2008 that the state created more than 100,000 residences.
In Marin, 176 residences were created last year. Novato led the way with 73, while 30 were created in San Rafael and 10 in San Anselmo.
The county also produced 77 new “accessory dwelling units” — also known as granny or in-law apartments — last year. Eighteen were in San Rafael.
Murray said the county’s “lack of housing will continue to spur more middle class workers to depart to less expensive parts of California or other states where they can live their vision of the American Dream, which for most of them is no longer attainable in Marin.”
Schwarm predicted in his report that California will return to slightly positive annual population growth this year as pandemic-related deaths decline and federal immigration policies are relaxed.
Schwarm added, however, that if the state’s population continues to decline it could affect local governments’ ability to spend by triggering the “Gann limit.”
Instituted by a constitutional measure in 1979, the Gann limit placed a cap on appropriations by state and local governments. The limit is calculated from the base year of 1978-79 and adjusted for cost of living increases and population growth.
If a government collects more in taxes than it is allowed to spend, excess funds must be returned to taxpayers. Tax rebates similar to the ones announced by Gov. Gavin Newsom this month would have been mandated by the limit due to the state’s large budget surplus.
“San Rafael’s loss is something we are watching and if the decline in population were to continue long enough, we could see a lower limit on our expenditure amount,” said City Manager Jim Schutz. “However, we are not running up against the Gann limit locally, so it would take some years of on-going declines for that issue to affect us.”
Whiskey Is for Drinking, Water Is for Fighting Over
in UncategorizedWhile Mark Twain may or may not be the author of the “water is for fighting over” phrase, the sentiment still rings true in California. And with the drought worsening, we can expect more fights over water in our future. In addition to dealing with the need to conserve water and increase water supply, there are two water-related issues before us now that need attention. The first is the use of water capacity as a way to stop new development. And the second is the threat to keeping water in the North Bay in the North Bay.
But first, a little perspective. The California Water Foundation’s Aquapedia (Link) describes the fight over water well. “California will always be inextricably linked to its water resources. Water continues to shape the state’s development and no resource is as vital to California’s urban centers, farms, industry, recreation, scenic beauty and environmental preservation.”
California’s economy and culture have always been shaped by the abundance or scarcity of water. The Golden State’s economy, agricultural production, and population have grown to number one in the nation, largely in pace with the development of its water resources. California receives 75 percent of its rain and snow in the watersheds north of Sacramento. However, 80 percent of California’s water demand comes from the southern 2/3 of the state. And that equation is one that continues to cause controversy and strife.
The Aquapedia says, “The most basic issues affecting California’s water supply center on distributing and sharing the resource — getting the water to the right place at the right time — while also not harming the environment and aquatic species. Distribution is also coupled with conflicts between competing interests over the use of available supplies.”
“But moving water over great distances has created intense regional rivalries. Water feuds historically have divided the state, pitting north against south, east against west and three major stakeholders (agricultural, urban and environmental) against one another. Intense disagreements persist over the manner in which California’s water resources are developed and managed,” according to the Aquapedia.
Moving the water has created a heavily engineered water system. Aquapedia says, “These geographic disparities have been remedied, in large part, by building one of the most complex and sophisticated flood management, water storage and water transport systems in the world. An integrated system of federal, state and locally owned dams, reservoirs, pumping plants and aqueducts transports large portions of the state’s surface water hundreds of miles.”
The state water system is also being impacted by the effects of climate change. Scientists predict increased temperatures, less snow, earlier snowmelt and a rise in sea level which will have major implications for water supply, flood management and ecosystem health.
Water districts should have learned from the last drought how to be better prepared for the next one. Steps should have been taken to incentivize conservation, increase water recycling and reuse, capture more storm water, fix leaking pipes in the system, and generate more supply like from desalination. Instead, some water districts like Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD) are leaping to declare water hook-up moratoriums to stop new construction. This is a short-sighted and ineffectual response.
Housing is a crisis in the North Bay. We have a huge need to build more housing and because we haven’t built anywhere near the amount we should, the costs of housing have skyrocketed, pushing many of Marin’s workforce far from the county in which they work. Now we are experiencing a worker shortage, which is growing as we shrink our workforce due to the lack of housing. This is unsustainable and will wreak havoc on our slowing recovering economy.
Emma Talley writes in Could California’s drought crisis block Bay Area housing?(Link), “Restrictions on housing production in the form of service hookups could strain the market in Marin, making it even more unaffordable. Tom Lai, director of the Marin County Community Development Agency, said if the area cannot meet its state mandates for permitting new housing, the deficit could also perpetuate racial inequalities with respect to where housing is located, what types of housing are available, and who lives in that housing.”
Talley says, “In Lai’s opinion, an outright ban on all new service connections for an extended time would be shortsighted. I would urge those making decisions to ban new hookups to look holistically at the problem,’ he said, including reevaluating existing and new conservation programs.”
“As housing experts point out, new construction is quite water efficient and water hook-up moratoriums won’t solve supply concerns, says Talley.” ‘There are so many other options that we can consider, said Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy with Stanford University’s Water in the West program. She explained it’s much better to think more strategically about how we want to be more water conscious and have a smaller water footprint.’”
While “there’s always this tension between development and water use,” Ajami advocates for connecting land-use planning and water-use planning, explaining that often the two are considered separately. She said when considering new developments, cities should focus on building structures that are “much more efficient in the way they use water.”
Southern California has invested more than $1 billion in new storage infrastructure since the early 2000s. Yet the recent storage expansion in the south is unmatched in the historically wetter north, Ajami said. “They’ve done a lot more to diversify and save water compared to some other communities across the state,” she said. “It shows that when you’re under constant stress, you respond.”
In Facing Drought, Southern California Has More Water Than Ever by Laura Bliss (Bloomberg Green Link), she says “Investments in water recycling, desalination and stormwater capture have also made a difference. The city does not expect to ask residents to ration supplies this year or the next, said Delon Kwan, assistant director of water resources at the L.A. Department of Water and Power, because Southern California has a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water in reserve, enough to quench the population’s needs this year and into the next.”
But those actions do not preclude Southern California’s lopsided population being in a different place as the drought continues and climate change intensifies. It is alarming that MMWD is pursuing repeating the solution they found in the desperate times of the 1977 drought – running a pipeline over the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge to bring in water from the East Bay. There are many reasons why that solution is not the right solution in 2021 but the biggest reason is the danger of that pipeline providing access by Southern California to our water supply in the North Bay. Pipes flow in two directions and what is painted as our salvation today could be our doom tomorrow.
It would be far wiser to pursue other solutions such as more recycling or reuse, stormwater capture, and desalination that will provide supply that is under the local control. “Demand management is the best and cheapest way we can approach water security,” Ajami said. “There is no supply in California that is not vulnerable.”
California Bill Seeks to Help College Students Suffering From Pandemic’s Impact
in UncategorizedAccess to higher education provides students in California with many socioeconomic benefits and strengthens our state’s global competitiveness.
But as we continue working our way past the COVID-19 pandemic, many students face hardships that put their degree or certificate completion at risk. The Cal Grant Equity Framework proposal (Assembly Bill 1456) being considered in Sacramento would help address the dire basic needs crisis our college students currently are experiencing.
In a clear example of the pandemic’s impact on college attendance across the state, almost five million Californians, many of whom do not hold post secondary degrees, have found themselves unemployed at some point since the beginning of the pandemic. Even more concerning — California’s community colleges have declined an average of 11% to 12% systemwide. This is far greater than the initial estimates of 5% to 7% at the end of 2020.
With career and educational goals on hold indefinitely for many current and future college students, we now risk losing an entire generation in the college and career pipeline, affecting their knowledge and skill sets and possibly leading them to face issues with employability and productivity.
Emergency aid is helping, but it is not enough. The pandemic further exposed inequities in higher education, which California must act upon by immediately, modernizing its approach to financial aid and better ensure education equity for students. With that, the timing on AB 1456 is critical as we actively take steps to support California’s college students.
Brought forward by Assemblymembers Jose Medina (D-Riverside) and Kevin McCarty (D-Sacramento), AB 1456 will modernize, simplify and expand the Cal Grant program by eliminating barriers to student eligibility based on factors like their age or time since high school graduation.
AB 1456 could not arrive at a more critical time. In late 2019, the state economy was still showing signs of strength: at that moment, California’s $3.1 trillion economy was the fifth largest in the world, ranked between Germany and the United Kingdom.
The state also represented 15% of the total U.S. economy. However, California’s economy lost momentum in fall of 2020 as COVID infections started to climb and the unemployment rate reached 8.2%.
AB 1456 would have a transformative impact for both local communities and businesses, as completion of higher education improves access in a skilled workforce, strengthening economic growth and increasing individual wages. This transformative proposal could be a shot in the arm for California’s economy, as there is much to build from: California remains a main point of entry for global markets, a hub for technology and innovation, and the center of the entertainment industry.
Cal Grant Modernization has been worked on by a diverse set of stakeholders to ensure it not only makes sense for students, but also, it is smart for business. Legislators should not hesitate to adopt financial aid reform as it directly bolsters future state revenue. Just a 5% increase in degree attainment could generate an additional $4.2 billion in revenue.
Now that’s smart.
North Bay Pandemic Recovery a Mixed Mag, Research Says
in UncategorizedHow is the North Bay’s economy faring now that we’re 15 months into the pandemic?
Researchers from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute addressed several of the indicators during the North Bay Leadership Council’s 2021 State of the North Bay Conference, held June 10 via video conference.
“The impacts of COVID-19 on the Bay Area, North Bay and the nation’s economy were pretty severe and swift, so we’re still working to come out of those,” said Patrick Kallerman, institute research director. “We have vastly unequal employment, a changing work landscape, labor shortages and worker displacement, among other things.”
Although not all jobs can be carried out remotely, the popularity of jobs that can be done outside of the office remains strong. But there are pros and cons to that scenario.
Positive outcomes could include higher worker morale, ease of child care issues and more family time, as well as fewer single-occupancy vehicles on the highways, which down the road would help with greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
One of the more significant downsides of not going to the office, however, would be the impact on the “dollars that support our infrastructure investments in a regional transit network,” such as SMART, Kallerman said. And that would have a domino effect, with fewer workers supporting downtown businesses for lunches or booking conference centers for events.
On the wages front, Kallerman said the number of middle- and high-wage jobs are almost 10% higher than before the pandemic. But low-wage earners have yet to see the number of jobs return to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, they’re off by nearly 40%, he said.
Overall, however, the North Bay is beating both the state and the region in percentage of jobs recovered. As of April, the North Bay had recaptured 49% of jobs, compared with 48% in California overall and 40.9% in the Bay Area.
Greer Cowan, research analyst at the economic institute, presented data that show more people are leaving the North Bay for other parts of the state and country. The pandemic has exacerbated departures that had already been intensifying over the last several years because of wildfires, she said.
The institute’s data show that going back to 2019, households that left the area had an annual income of less than $100,000. roksa.ch. The top relocation destinations have been Texas, Arizona, Washington, Nevada and Oregon.
As of 2020, Marin, Sonoma and Napa counties collectively lost more than 8,000 people as a result of domestic migration, Cowan said.
“And looking ahead, the North Bay population is expected to age in the coming decades, which makes these challenges, in terms of labor force, even more acute,” Cowan said. “So it’s important to factor in this projected demographic shift in planning for the future of the North Bay workforce.”
The pandemic also has taken a toll on another segment of workers.
“Women and parents in general had a hard time maintaining their status in the workforce, while also taking on the additional home care needs that resulted from the pandemic-fueled changes to the child care system and elder care system,” Cowan said. “Over the last year-plus of the pandemic, in almost every month with a few exceptions, more women dropped out of the labor force than men.”
In most cases, they were low-wage earning mothers who brought in less than their male counterparts. Depending on the job, the differential ranged between 64 cents and 87 cents on the dollar, she said.
“But despite all these barriers and inequities, there’s a proven economic benefit of having women in the workforce,” Cowan said. “Economists often talk about the female labor force participation as the most significant change in the labor force over the past century or so.”
One brighter result coming out of the pandemic has been the impact of pandemic relief funds, Kallerman said.
“Consumer spending is back, way back,” he said. “I think that we did learn our lessons during the financial crisis, that if you act swiftly and inject money into the economy quickly, you can circumvent a sort of complete structural collapse that would take you years and years to come out of.”
The relief money also helped a number of small businesses to survive, he said.
“The delinquency rate for small business loans is still actually very low, so that tells us that a lot of them hung in there,” Kallerman said.
Marin Independent Journal Editorial: To stabilize population drop, Marin must push for social, economic balance
in UncategorizedBy MARIN IJ EDITORIAL BOARD |May 20, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.
It should be expected that Marin would be counted among the large majority of California counties that lost population over the past year.
The drop was small — 1% — but twice California’s 0.46% statewide count, according to the state Department of Finance’s annual estimate.
The state’s headcount puts Marin’s population at 257,774, with the largest declines seen in Marin’s unincorporated areas.
Observers speculate that those who left Marin were local workers who had lost their jobs or seen their incomes diminish due to the pandemic lockdowns.
Marin is an expensive place to live. The high cost of housing, not surprisingly, trickles down to the local cost of products and services as local businesses need to pay enough to hire and retain workers.
In addition, during 2020, more Marin residents died than the number of local births. That figure includes more than 100 whose deaths were related to the spread of that COVID-19 virus.
For decades, Marin has been counted as one of the state’s slowest-growing counties.
The previous state headcount put Marin’s population to just over 260,000.
The increases were fairly negligible, except for a recent period when enrollment in Marin’s public schools boomed, mostly due to young families moving to the county from San Francisco.
Commute traffic on Highway 101, across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge and on Highway 37 were impacted more by local jobholders commuting from areas where they could afford to buy homes.
Cynthia Murray, chief executive of the North Bay Leadership Council, a bi-county organization of large employers and nonprofits, said Marin’s numbers reflect younger families leaving Marin for more affordable areas.
“The exodus of the younger middle class workers is accelerating with the new options of being able to work from home or need to go to the office infrequently,” she added.
Whether that pandemic-caused business trend turns into a new norm remains to be seen.
As Murray said, the American Dream of home ownership is less attainable in Marin for middle-class families. That’s the economic sector that made their homes in Marin and helped grow our county during the latter half of the 20th century.
It is a sad reflection of our county that those most in need — including those who make up much of our local workforce — face a decision of having to move from Marin.
It should be interesting to see how the 2020 U.S. Census headcount compares to the state’s numbers. They should be able to shed more light on who’s moving out and where they are going.
But according to the state’s estimates, the current bottom line is that Marin during 2019-20 lost population at twice the rate of the state.
The construction of affordable housing — and state lawmakers’ demand that Marin build even more housing, affordable and market-rate — is going to contribute to making this slide short-lived.
In addition, interest in building more senior housing should open homes for new households.
The state’s count is another sign that our county is still seeking to balance its social and economic needs, its water supply and need to recruit and retain local jobholders, along with the capacity of our roadways and retaining what has long made Marin a great place to live and grow a family.
The state’s numbers tip the scale slightly in a new, unexpected direction. The pandemic likely exacerbated an existing trend. The state’s push to build more housing at numbers for decades unseen across Marin will also weigh in on that balancing act.
State data: Marin County’s Population Fell in 2020
in UncategorizedBy RICHARD HALSTEAD | rhalstead@marinij.com | Marin Independent Journal
PUBLISHED: May 15, 2021 at 5:10 p.m. | UPDATED: May 17, 2021 at 6:40 a.m.
A mountain biker rides along a stretch of the Gold Hill Fire in San Rafael on Saturday, May 15, 2021. (Sherry LaVars/Marin Independent Journal)
California posted a yearly decrease in population in 2020 for the first time in more than a century, and so did Marin County.
The state’s population dropped by 182,083 residents, or 0.46%, during 2020, according to population estimates and housing data released by the California Department of Finance. Marin’s population took an even bigger dip: It lost 2,614 residents, or 1% of its population, reducing its total to 257,774.
San Rafael, the Marin municipality with the biggest decrease, sustained a 0.6% loss, or 369 residents. Novato, which had a 0.1% decrease in its population, or 55 residents, was the Marin municipality with the smallest percentage loss.
Marin’s unincorporated area lost the highest percentage of residents, 2.6%, or 1,809 people.
“California as a whole had only three counties that did not experience population drop, so Marin County is not unique in that sense,” said Mike Blakeley, chief executive officer of the Marin Economic Forum.
“The implications in Marin of a shrinking population is that it could result in a diminishing workforce, which might make it more difficult for the economy to grow if labor is not readily available,” Blakeley said. “We already observe that employers are having difficulty hiring, especially at the lower wage levels, but this was also the case pre-pandemic so we would not attribute that to population decrease.”
Walter Schwarm, the state’s chief demographer, attributed the statewide drop in population to several factors. First, California continues to see declines in the “natural increase” of the population, he said. There were 24,000 more deaths than births in California in 2020. This trend was amplified by 51,000 deaths to COVID-19 in the state last year.
Schwarm said Marin County had 2,138 deaths last year compared with 2,073 births. That included more than 100 deaths from COVID-19.
Schwarm said another important factor leading to the population decrease was federal policy, including restrictions on H-1B and other visas, and global lockdowns that prevented international immigration during the pandemic. He said this resulted in 53,000 fewer international students in California during 2020.
The Bay Area Council wrote on its website that the population report “shows the nine-county Bay Area total population stagnating between July 2019 and July 2020. Notably, net domestic migration (movement between states) continued its growing negative trend, with a loss of 63,000 residents over the 12-month period.”
The 2020 data also indicate that California residents are moving from the coast to inland counties, Schwarm said.
According to the Public Policy Institute of California, approximately 6.1 million people left California during the 2010s, while 4.9 million moved in.
Cynthia Murray, chief executive of the North Bay Leadership Council, said Marin’s population decrease “represents a further hollowing out of the middle class.”
“If you look at who is leaving, it is the younger workforce that is seizing the opportunity to move to where they can afford to buy a home and raise their family,” she said. “The exodus of the younger middle class workers is accelerating with the new options of being able to work from home or need to go to the office infrequently.
“Marin is, and will be, challenged to fill jobs that require people to be at the worksite,” Murray said. “With a lot of job openings, and talent in short supply, there will need to be an increase in wages and benefits to be competitive.”
The Department of Finance report also included new housing data, saying 103,073 new residences were created in the state last year. It was the first year since 2008 that the state created more than 100,000 residences.
In Marin, 176 residences were created last year. Novato led the way with 73, while 30 were created in San Rafael and 10 in San Anselmo.
The county also produced 77 new “accessory dwelling units” — also known as granny or in-law apartments — last year. Eighteen were in San Rafael.
Murray said the county’s “lack of housing will continue to spur more middle class workers to depart to less expensive parts of California or other states where they can live their vision of the American Dream, which for most of them is no longer attainable in Marin.”
Schwarm predicted in his report that California will return to slightly positive annual population growth this year as pandemic-related deaths decline and federal immigration policies are relaxed.
Schwarm added, however, that if the state’s population continues to decline it could affect local governments’ ability to spend by triggering the “Gann limit.”
Instituted by a constitutional measure in 1979, the Gann limit placed a cap on appropriations by state and local governments. The limit is calculated from the base year of 1978-79 and adjusted for cost of living increases and population growth.
If a government collects more in taxes than it is allowed to spend, excess funds must be returned to taxpayers. Tax rebates similar to the ones announced by Gov. Gavin Newsom this month would have been mandated by the limit due to the state’s large budget surplus.
“San Rafael’s loss is something we are watching and if the decline in population were to continue long enough, we could see a lower limit on our expenditure amount,” said City Manager Jim Schutz. “However, we are not running up against the Gann limit locally, so it would take some years of on-going declines for that issue to affect us.”
PLEASE PARTICIPATE IN TWO SURVEYS ABOUT COMMUTING TO FACILITATE TRANSIT PLANNING
in UncategorizedThe survey can be completed in five minutes or less and will be conducted from Monday, May 3, 2021, through Sunday, May 23, 2021. Employer representatives completing the survey will have a chance to win a $50 Visa Gift Card. You can begin the survey here.
B & L Glass Joins North Bay Leadership Council
in UncategorizedNorth Bay Leadership Council (NBLC) announced that B & L Glass is its newest member. With over 60 years in business at the same location in Santa Rosa, B & L Glass provides, installs, and repairs a variety of glass products and services for residential and commercial clients throughout the North Bay, including Sonoma and Napa counties. They are one of the largest glass companies in the North Bay.
Patty Garbarino, chair of NBLC’s board and President, Marin Sanitary Services, said, “Construction, especially of housing, is a key priority for NBLC members and we welcome B & L Glass who will help strengthen our public policy advocacy to make new construction easier in the North Bay.”
B & L Glass sells and installs everything glass for residential, commercial and complex specialty projects. This includes offerings for luxury residential home projects, low rise commercial projects and storefront windows. B & L Glass also specializes and has extensive expertise in “design build” complex projects —– their experience includes winery building & cave projects, arts centers, custom built glass balcony & rails, custom glass staircases, massive skylights, heavy glass shower enclosures, etc. The company is Diamond Certified.
The member representative will be the CEO, Jeff Rowland, who is a seasoned, results-oriented, sales, marketing, and business development executive. Rowland has 30 years of experience in the high-tech world as an executive and senior level contributor to the worldwide sales and growth of global, multi-billion-dollar organizations and technology start-ups in the Americas, EMEA and APAC. He is a graduate of Southern Illinois University – Carbondale. He recently bought land in Santa Rosa to build a new home for his family, which includes his wife and three children.
Rowland said, “B & L Glass is a longstanding member of the North Bay community and we are excited to join other NBLC members in ensuring that the region regains its economic vitality, a large part of which will be from the construction of new housing for the North Bay workforce. We look forward to contributing our experience to help close the gap in much-needed new housing production and other types of construction.”
As the new owners of B & L Glass since 2019, Rowland and his wife Jennifer are establishing industry partnerships and collaborating with likeminded business organizations. They are members of the Santa Rosa Chamber and Sonoma County Alliance and are both active in children’s charities.
Marin Business Survey Finds Dire Pandemic Outlook
in UncategorizedMore than a third of Marin County business owners polled in a recent survey said they have dipped into personal savings, racked up credit card debt or borrowed money from family members to keep their enterprises alive during the coronavirus pandemic.
The survey, which polled nearly 1,200 Marin business owners, highlights the dire financial situation for many companies after a year of lockdowns and restrictions, said Cynthia Murray, CEO of the North Bay Leadership Council. The survey was conducted in February by Keep Marin Working, a business advocacy group.
“I was surprised by the number of people putting their debt on credit cards. Those are last-resort situations,” said Murray, a member of Keep Marin Working. “We think about money for keeping doors open, but if there isn’t assistance to help them pay their debt, these businesses won’t be able to stay open.”
More than three quarters of the survey respondents said they had seen revenues fall during the pandemic and were concerned about the economic stability of their businesses.
The online survey, which was circulated by Marin’s cities, towns and chambers of commerce, polled business owners throughout the county in more than two dozen industries. Almost 70% said revenues were down 10% or more and 35% said revenues were down more than 50%.
About a third of the respondents said their businesses were only partially open with reduced staff or hours and 13% said all staff were working remotely. About 9% said they had closed temporarily and 1% had closed permanently.
To weather the next six months, 9% of the respondents said they would close permanently or temporarily until coronavirus restrictions are lifted. About 8% said they plan to downsize and 1% said they would relocate outside of Marin. Just under half said they would stay in business with the same number of staff they had in February.
Many of the business owners secured pandemic relief funding, including 53% who said they got at least one round of funding from the federal Paycheck Protection Program. About 15% said they qualified for PPP money twice.
About 36% of respondents said they had used personal savings toward their businesses over the past year, while 16% built up credit card debt and 6% borrowed money from family members. Some used a combination of the three.
“What I take away is that there’s still a great need out there,” said Joanne Webster, CEO of the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce and a member of Keep Marin Working. “Even though there are a lot of programs out there, people are still incurring personal debt, and that’s scary, because it means they’re not going to be able to invest in their businesses.”
Webster and other members of Keep Marin Working are advocating for a new Marin County program that would provide grants to small businesses. Webster is urging county officials to set aside at least $2 million for the program.
“We want to avoid bankruptcy,” Webster said. “For these smaller businesses, if they declare bankruptcy or go out of businesses, that really creates problems in our downtowns and on our main streets. We want to avoid blight.”
Even as health officials roll back coronavirus restrictions and the number of vaccinated Marin residents grows, a looming uncertainty continues for business owners, Webster said. The county has eased up on restrictions in the past only to reinstate them amid growing infection rates.
“The anxiety is still there,” Webster said, “and the uncertainty is still there.”
Businesses that have seen their customer bases grow with looser public health restrictions also face challenges with the sudden boost in demand, said Miriam Hope Karell, director of the Marin Small Business Development Center, who also is a Keep Marin Working member. Some are struggling to hire staff, which is a perennial problem for Marin businesses in need of low-wage labor that has been exacerbated by the pandemic, she said.
Justin Flake has posted ads to online job boards seeking new employees at the Acqua Hotel in Mill Valley, where he is general manager, but he’s seen very few applications come in. Business started increasing around Valentine’s Day and has kept growing since, he said.
“We’re in a spot where we need to be hiring people very quickly to keep up with the demand, but it’s hard,” Flake said.
Flake, who also manages two other hotels with the Marin Hotels Group, said the business laid off more than 90% of its staff in March 2020. He’s resorted to posting the new job openings on social media in recent weeks in hopes of finding candidates, which has netted a few applicants. But keeping the hotel staffed has become “a balancing act” amid the flip-flopping restrictions, he said.
The business has relied on financial assistance program, including PPP money, which it qualified for twice, to keep running, Flake said.
“It’s been a really tough year,” Flake said. “Without those programs, it would be unsustainable to keep moving forward.”
The Financial Impact of COVID-19 on Marin County Businesses
in UncategorizedExecutive Summary
Marin County’s businesses have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact will have lasting effects on our local economy. Leading Business Associations at Keep Marin Working launched a survey to understand the immediate stability and financial needs of our businesses to better support them moving forward. This survey was created for businesses throughout the County to provide information to be used to inform initiatives and activities that forge opportunities for their survival and success during and after the pandemic.
Keep Marin Working (KMW), a collaboration of business and economic development organizations, drafted and distributed the survey in both English and Spanish. The results painted a picture of major financial struggle for businesses across the County during this time. Of these participating businesses, 78% percent had seen a decline in revenue causing much concern about their financial security and economic stability and not knowing how long they can survive. In fact, 58% of the businesses that participated in the survey said they are using their personal savings, accumulating massive credit card debt or borrowing from family members just to stay in business. Seventeen businesses have said they have permanently closed, and thirty-two additional businesses say they plan on closing for good in the near future. Almost 70% of respondents stated their business decreased by 10% or more with 35% stating revenues were down between 50-100%. When asked what their businesses needed to survive, surprisingly 25% of businesses said they could maintain in operation for six months if they received a grant of $5,000 or less, while twenty one percent felt that $20,000- $50,000 would be necessary to survive.
Of the participants, 70% of the businesses that participated have been in operation for over 10 years. 74% had 5 or less employees and 92% had 20 or less employees. 44% were single owner businesses and over 66% were women owned. 67% percent of the participants were from the city of San Rafael, 8% from Novato, nearly 6% from unincorporated Marin, and 5% from the city of Mill Valley with the remainder from every other local jurisdiction.
Conclusion
In review of the survey data, it was revealed that the businesses in Marin County were affected dramatically by the COVID-19 pandemic and went to great lengths to survive. In fact, without personal financial support and support from a local, state or federal source a significant portion would not survive. This shows us the temporary tenacity that these sole proprietors and brick-and-mortar entities have, yet many of these businesses are hanging on by a thread.
The most alarming fact was that 58% of the Marin businesses have been forced to use personal
savings, credit card debt or family loans for a means to continue operations. The life-blood of
Marin’s economy is in the retention and expansion of our small businesses. As we have witnessed
many of our local businesses adapting and embracing the changes in our environment, they are
taking on more and more debt. Uncertainty is still a factor and it is our concern that many of these
local businesses will simply not be able to take on more debt. If our businesses do not re-invest in
their operations and grow in the coming years, it will slow down or even shut down our local
economy.
Given these findings, there is an urgent need to assist Marin’s businesses now to help them stay
afloat, so they can continue to provide us with the jobs and services we need. Based on the
collected information, the KMW group strongly recommends another county-wide business relief
grant program. It is estimated that if the program was funded up to $2,000,000, the county could
provide immediate relief to save our local businesses. This would drive a quicker economic recovery
that would benefit all of Marin. However, we need more than a program that provides immediate
relief; we need a program that provides ongoing support until the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
have dissipated. KMW recommends a longer-term commitment to recover affected industries to
secure an economic base in Marin that is strong, diverse and resilient.
Methodology
Using a well-known survey tool, the survey was emailed out through newsletters and posted on
websites and in social media channels by all organizations in collaboration with the cities and the
County. The survey was available for three weeks from February 3rd to February 24th. A total of 1191 surveys (capturing over 10% of the total licenses countywide) were completed, and in these results, there was a fair distribution sample of small, medium and large businesses representing every major business sector. Although we translated the survey in Spanish, distribution of the survey to Spanishspeaking business owners proved to be more complex, due to digital literacy and the digital divide that exists in Marin. We acknowledge that more work needs to be done to reach both Latino and other BIPOC owned businesses and we will continue to work with our community partners to capture and track this data. This survey is a strong start that represents an ample array of businesses across the region.
View Survey Results-English
View Survey Results-Spanish
Keep Marin Working (KMW), is a collaborative of diverse Marin organizations, whose purpose is to
coordinate and strengthen the voice of business throughout the county and take positions to create a more business-friendly climate. This group includes the North Bay Leadership Council, Marin Realtors Association, Marin Economic Forum, Marin Builders Association, Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Marin, San Rafael Chamber of Commerce, Latino Council, Novato Chamber of Commerce, Marin Small Business Development Center (SBDC) and Canal Alliance.
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Contact: Josh Townsend
Strategic32
jtownsend@32strategic.com
(415) 910-0464
NBLC Statement on Violence, Racism, Misogyny and Anti-Semitism
in UncategorizedNorth Bay Leadership Council mourns the loss of the eight souls murdered in Atlanta, including six Asian/Asian American women. We are saddened by the continuing acts of violence against people of color throughout the United States. The fact that hatred, racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism and violence are ever present in our communities shows the need for us to become more united in the efforts to stop hate in all its forms.
There is a cumulative effect of the hatred and violence we are witnessing and far too many are experiencing. The prevalence of hatred and violence causes fear not only among the people being targeted but for all right-minded people who recognize that hatred and violence are a cancer in our communities. If one person isn’t safe, none of us are.
It is apparent that there is a much work to do to end racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism and violence in our country. NBLC is committed to that cause and looks to partner with other groups in achieving that goal. We support efforts like those of Santa Rosa Junior College to stand in Solidarity with the Asian American and Pacific Islander Communities and Denouncing Anti-Asian Racism/Violence. You can read the SRJC Resolution here.
In response to challenges, NBLC seeks to be a problem-solver and part of the solution. We think that contributing to nonprofits who serve the AAPI community in California would be helpful. Below are some suggestions or consider giving to any group with likeminded objectives:
Let us join together to put all of our resources and hearts into ending racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism and violence. We call on our colleagues to stand with us in grief and solidarity against systemic racism and gender-based violence. Violence against Asian American communities is part of a larger system of violence and racism against all communities of color, including Black, Brown, and Indigenous communities.
In this time of crisis, let’s come together and build just communities, where we are all safe, valued, and treated with dignity and respect.