POLICY WATCH – October 2024
In This Issue
State of the North Bay Economic Insight Conference - Key Takeaways
Get the Richmond Bridge Moving
More Housing Options Needed for our Aging Population
PPIC Survey- Californians and their Government
Candidate Endorsements
Upcoming Events:
Business Edge Briefing
Welcome New Member - Canal Alliance
Members in the News
Last week, NBLC hosted its annual State of the North Bay Economic Insight Conference with over 100 business and community leaders attending virtually to hear a presentation of original research, commissioned by NBLC, by Bay Area Council’s Economic Institute’s Executve Director, Jeff Bellasario. Jeff was followed by a panel of North Bay City Managers and Economic Development Directors discussing the status of local city economies in Marin, Sonoma and Napa. In this issue we will highlight key takeways from the conference. We also show our support for opening up the third lane on the Richmond San Rafael bridge, look at our aging population in the North Bay and explore housing options for Baby Boomers, and welcome new member Canal Alliance. In addition, we take a sneak peek at how ballot measures are polling and present you again with our legislative agenda. We introduce our slate of candidates we are supporting to help guide you through the November ballot, just in case you have not already cast your vote.
Please save the date and register for upcoming events. Business Edge Briefing: Thrive in the AI Era: Unleashing the Power of Human Connection & Creativity, November 20, 11:00am via zoom. This briefing is in partnership with Dominican University Barowsky School of Business, Institute of Leadership Studies.
State of the North Bay Economic Insight Conference
Last week, on October 23rd, over one hundred business and community leaders attended NBLC’s annual State of the North Bay virtual conference to hear a presentation of original research from Bay Area Council’s Economic Institute’s Executive Director, Jeff Bellasario.
Although the North Bay and the Bay Area are still trailing behind the nation and state in economic recovery, the North Bay’s economy remains relatively strong. That was the sentiment last week given the data presented.
Reporter Marc Albert, from NorCalPublic Media was on at the conference and agreed, reporting in an online article that “Offices are more occupied, airport passenger numbers are soaring and recent minimum wage increases, including for fast food workers, do not appear to be holding the region back. On the upside, Bellasario said a key marker of economic activity---road congestion and commuting....is illustrative.”
"Fewer people are taking transit, those office workers are not back, but the workers in the service sector, in construction, in manufacturing, the ones that maybe don't have a transit option or a remote work option, they are the ones that are coming back to work and really, we're looking almost back to where we were pre-pandemic in terms of traffic," Bellasario said.
“Data (from the economic report), also suggests tourism is recovering. While Sonoma County hotel occupancy is down 13 percent compared to before COVID, passenger traffic at Sonoma County's airport is up 62 percent. That's compared to double digits declines at San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose”, reported Albert. People in general are just not coming to the Bay Area region overall and that is impacting the numbers in the North Bay. This is a key indicator to watch as we get back to full recovery.
Albert continues, “At the same time, there are headwinds. Bellasario said office vacancies in Santa Rosa hover around 10 percent. But that's better than many other Bay Area locales, where work-from-home is hurting more than just commercial landlords.”
“The downtown economies that are dependent on offices and office workers have really struggled to come back. And what that has meant is that we now have fewer restaurants and barber shops and gyms in those areas too that are not employing people because that 9-5 worker is just not there.”
“Bellasario said city and county officials need to re-envision downtowns to restore vitality. He expects it will take a decade for the office market to normalize, but that falling lease-rates could fuel a revival.”
“In one survey cited at the conference, 53 percent of respondents identified the region's affordability and housing prices as major challenges. That reality is fueling an outflow of young adults, Bellasario said, robbing the region of people launching careers and starting new households.” Population decline is a key concern in the North Bay. Where does the workforce come from if young families cannot afford to live here?
"Population is down significantly from where we were in 2015-2016," Bellasario added.
Bellasario “said that although that started with regional wildfires, the fact the trend is continuing presents a challenge. Economists regularly cite new household formation as a key economic driver.” Bellasario noted several growth sectors as possible opportunities for the North Bay including climate resilience and natural resources, biotech and manufacturing related jobs. However, if young families are moving to other regions that are more affordable and offer a better quality of life, how we think about these jobs needs to change in the North Bay. We need to create housing policies, investments and partnerships to grow the workforce in these areas and create a talent pipeline.
The affordability issue is also leading the area’s demographics to trend older. The median age in Marin is the oldest at 48, Sonoma County is 43.5 and Napa just below Sonoma at 43.4 compared with the statewide average of 37.
Santa Rosa's City Manager, Marakeshia Smith, who also presented at the conference, stressed the importance of understanding that housing is economic development. Business owners and residents in Santa Rosa prioritized housing and affordability in a recent survey conducted by Smith and her team as the most important issues for the future of the city.
“When we talk about economic development, we must talk about housing. Housing directly affects our local markets, our business vitality, consumer spending and tax burdens”, Smith said. She went on to say that “"When people cannot afford housing, attracting and retaining skilled workers, it becomes challenging. The City of Santa Rosa, we are working on zoning, we [have a] pro-housing designation, we have certified our housing element, but we have to continue to do more."
San Rafael City Manager, Cristine Alilovich noted nearly a billion dollars of development interest in the city was overwhelming. Much of the investment includes the redevelopment of a mall. “The Northgate Mall redevelopment is the largest residential project the County, not just the San Rafael city, but the County has ever seen.” 1300 units of housing are expected to come online in the next ten years, if the project is approved.
City of Napa Economic Development Director Neal Harrison agreed with the other presenters. Napa’s population is shrinking and getting older. This is a major concern and a challenge for the city. At the top of his presentation he stated, “we have challenges in workforce; people coming in to fill in, especially hospitality jobs. Housing affordability is huge.”
“While the out-migration of residents is starting to reverse, it will likely continue being an overall drag,” Bellasario, said.
"You are now on almost a ten-year trend of population decline, which for us is a pretty good proxy for the ability to grow economically, if you are not growing your workforce, you are not growing your population it's very tough to add jobs and add opportunities."
Let’s Get the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge Moving
Transportation has been identified as a priority focus area from our membership. As data from the State of the North Bay report notes, transit ridership is down, and traffic crossing bridges is steadily climbing. These commuters are workers in the service sector, in construction, in health care jobs, educators and in manufacturing, the ones that maybe don't have a transit option or a remote work option.
One action NBLC is taking in addressing congestion in the North Bay is on the Richmond San Rafael bridge. NBLC is actively engaged with the Bay Area Council, and other associations in getting the third lane of the Richmond San Rafael Bridge opened as a pull over lane Monday-Thursday. “More than 80,000 drivers utilize the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge in their daily commute. Many of them commute to jobs in Marin and other parts of the North Bay. The vast majority of them (63%) are people of color. Sixty-nine percent of them do not have a college degree, and the majority of them (60%) make less than Bay Area’s median income.
According to daily bike counts, on good weather days, only 21 bikers cross the bridge during the morning commute. On bad weather days, it can be as few as 8 or even 2 riders. There are exceptionally few pedestrians. On the weekends, bike ridership does spike up to an average of 146 bikers riding back and forth over the whole day. For comparison, the Golden Gate Bridge has about 6,000 bikers a day. (According to the US Census Bureau, in the Bay Area, white riders represent 61% of the bike commuters, followed by Hispanics at 17%, Asians at 15% and African Americans at 2.4%. And bike riders are well off, 1 in 4 making $250,000 or more a year). As these drivers approach the Richmond San Rafael Bridge in the morning, they hit a huge traffic jam. During the peak hour, on average, they face 16-24 minutes of gridlock. What the term “average” misses is that often and unpredictably, the backup is far worse, as without a third lane or pullover lane it is exceptionally hard to clear accidents, and therefore these workers must leave much earlier than normal, just in case there is a huge back up, so they aren’t chronically late to work and lose their job. That’s time taken away from getting sleep or spending time with their families. This traffic jam on the freeway also backs up local streets and roads in the City of Richmond, impacting many local families who aren’t even trying to get on the Richmond Bridge.
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Bay Area Toll Authority have unanimously voted to support closing the bike lane during the most congested weekdays of Monday-Thursday to create a safety pullover lane. This can both improve safety for these tens of thousands of residents and reduce massive back-ups if there is an accident. While it is not a perfect analogy, we can see the safety improvements that happened on the lower deck with the addition of another lane that is open 5 hours a day and is solely a pullover lane the other 19 hours. Caltrans and study partner California PATH found that rear end collisions have decreased both on the bridge approach and the bridge by 50%. Sideswipes have decreased on the bridge approach with a 57% reduction as well as the rate of incidents per million miles traveled by 69%.
Following the actions by MTC and BATA, the permit is up for BCDC to consider this December. NBLC fully supports this compromise to create a phase 1 pull over lane, and a phase 2 HOV and Carpool Lane. This crucial decision by BCDC will bring additional safety and lower commute times for the critical teachers, nurses, contractors, employees and others don’t have transit options and who rely on the Richmond San Rafael Bridge to come to get to work.”
Housing Options for Our Aging Population
As we learned from the State of the North Bay economic report, the aging of the Baby Boomer generation is having a significant impact on the North Bay economy, and from what we read below, on other areas of our nation’s economy too.
As reported by Tracey Drury – Senior Reporter, Buffalo Business Times, “This portion of the population born between 1946 and 1964 is estimated at 73 million, with the youngest reaching age 65 by 2030 — just six years away. Some Baby Boomers will remain in the workforce while others shift into retirement. Many will have increasing and changing needs for health care services, housing and services as validated by the data in the report. Another issue to consider is where Baby Boomers will live. Downsizing from a bigger house to a patio home or a smaller apartment can provide both financial benefits as well as a safer, more accessible living environment with fewer stairs and opportunity for falls.
According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 70% of individuals turning 65 will require long term care services during their lifetime. New York will require another 96 nursing facilities by 2030 to keep up, according to Seniorliving.org, which found the nation would need more than 3,000 new nursing homes to keep up with demand as the older population expands.
To help keep people in their homes longer, AARP is pushing state legislators to support more funding for county-run programs that provide in-home services for people who are not on Medicaid, including meals and transportation to doctor’s appointments. That’s what most people want, according to surveys of AARP members.
“When people stay in their house, they stay in the community and contribute to the community,” said Bill Farris, a lobbyist with AARP. "They volunteer in the community and they work if they are able to. … It’s not rocket science. It’s so simple. Keep them part of the community and give them what they desperately want and it saves taxpayers money in the long run.”
There’s also demand for housing options at both patio home communities as well as continuing care retirement communities like Canterbury Woods and Fox Run of Orchard Park, both of which offer the full gamut from independent living to assisted living to skilled nursing services.
Fox Run, a nonprofit subsidiary of the United Church Home Society, serves 315 residents at its Orchard Park campus with plans to add another 70 apartments and patio homes. Demand is equally high at Canterbury Woods, where there are just five apartments open, said Rob Wallace, president and CEO.
The two campuses are constantly evolving to meet the changing needs of different generations.
“That is going to be especially important as the Baby Boomer generation continues to move into the retirement phase of their lives,” he said. “As an industry and as individual entities, we need to reflect the interests, tastes and values that make each generation unique, and we need to be flexible enough to predict and adapt to those changes.”
Wallace expects the greatest demand moving forward will come from middle-income older adults, including professionals returning to the region who hope to retire here, as well as parents and grandparents who want to be near their families.
“There is a widespread recognition in the senior care industry at large that middle income seniors are an underserved market,” he said.
PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government
NBLC is a member of the New California Coalition (NCC); a coalition of everyday voters, business leaders, and community organizations from across the state who are engaged in a civic movement to demand change and action. NCC seeks triple-bottom-line solutions that grow our economy, sustain our environment and fix social inequities. NCC recently gave an update on new polling on the long list of ballot measures facing North Bay voters next month. “Public Policy Institute of California is out with some new polling to tell us where things stand with less than two weeks to go. Four measures are sailing ahead: Prop 36, endorsed by NBLC, which toughens penalties for drug and theft crimes, is a runaway hit (73% approval).
Voters also strongly back removing outdated same-sex marriage bans (Prop 3), greenlighting $10 billion for climate projects (Prop 4), and earmarking a tax on health plans for low-income care (Prop 35). Barely squeaking past the 50% mark is Prop 2, which would authorize a $10 billion bond for school repairs. Voters are less keen on four other measures, all of which are trailing the level of support needed to win on Election Day. These include Prop 5’s push to ease local borrowing for affordable housing and infrastructure projects (NBLC endorsed Prop 5), and Prop 34’s controversial healthcare spending rules. Even further behind are measures on rent control (Prop 33) NBLC opposes Prop 33, prison labor restrictions (Prop 6), and a minimum wage hike (Prop 32).”
To read the entire report from Public Policy Institute of California- click PPIC
NBLC Ballot Measures and Candidate Endorsements
The business and civic leaders of the North Bay Leadership Council make it their goal to promote sound public policy to make the north bay a better place to live and work. We provide a strong voice for leading employers to drive public policy in our region, demonstrate and grow leadership within the region, and collectively work for a more resilient, prosperous and equitable future.
Please find our legislative agenda for the November 5th ballot here with recommendations for the Statewide propositions, regional and local ballot measures as they pertain to NBLCs workplan and priority focus areas for 2024.
Please find our slate of candidate endorsements here.
Upcoming Events
Business Edge Briefing: Thrive in the AI Era: Unleashing the Power of Human Connection & Creativity, November 20, 11:00am via zoom
This webinar zeroes in on the critical human capabilities needed in the workplace that Artificial Intelligence (AI) cannot replace, offering an island of sanity in the midst of this noisy, liminal space. These AI-proof capabilities -- the ability to care, connect, and co-create -- form the fundamental building blocks of your organization's culture and ways of working. Activating these behaviors will make the difference between teams that are primed to collaborate, innovate, and adapt and those who are not. Register Here.
Welcome New Member
North Bay Leadership Council provides a strong voice for leading employers to drive public policy in our region. Our membership consists of private businesses, public institutions, hospitals and members in the health care sector, government agencies, as well as nonprofits. They represent over 100,000 employees, across 27 different industry sectors. This diversity in membership brings the vision needed to our work to address complex issues and improve the community as a whole. The challenges we face require regional leadership, to work collaboratively in finding regional solutions.
Members in the News
SMART Awarded $81M by State of California to Extend Passenger Rail Service to Northern Sonoma County
The Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) District is pleased to announce an $81 million award from the State of California to extend passenger rail service to communities in northern Sonoma County.
Basin Street Properties Welcomes Quay Naturals from Oakland to Lakeville Business Park in Petaluma
Basin Street Properties, a prominent real estate investment, development, and management firm, is pleased to announce Quay Naturals has signed a 6,001 square foot lease at Lakeville Business Park in Petaluma.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s Kathryn Lowell Recognized as One of the 2024 Most Influential Women in Bay Area Business by the San Francisco Business Times
Kathryn was honored both for her acumen as an industry-leading legislative strategist and her commitment to the community. She serves on national, state and county-level boards and dedicates time outside of work to volunteer in the local Marin community. Congratulations Kathryn – we join you in celebrating this award!
Ultragenyx Receives Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Setrusumab (UX143) in Osteogenesis Imperfecta
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel products for rare and ultra-rare diseases, today announced that it has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for setrusumab (UX143) as a treatment to reduce the risk of fracture associated with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) Type I, III, or IV in patients 2 years of age and older.
Sonoma State University’s Wine Business Institute Names Nowak as Interim Executive Director
Sonoma State University is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Linda Nowak as Interim Executive Director of the Wine Business Institute (WBI).
Exchange Bank Honored with the Sonoma Index Tribune's Sonoma Valley People's Choice Award for Best Local Bank
Congratulations on this deserving recognition!
The Buck Institute for Research on Aging Hosted Global Experts for the 2024 Roundtable of Longevity Clinics
Building on the foundations laid during last year’s gathering, this year’s Roundtable will further demonstrate how longevity clinics are becoming an integral part of the industry, creating a collaborative platform to set new benchmarks for longevity interventions.
Kaiser Permanente Santa Rosa Receives New Recognitions
Kaiser Permanente Santa Rosa has received the following accolades this Summer: Newsweek Best Maternity Hospital, Press Democrat Best Hospital, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 5-Star Rated Hospital, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Stroke Gold Plus recognition in targets for Stroke Elite Plus Honor Roll and Type 2 Diabetes Honor Roll.
Who We Are
North Bay Leadership Council is the strong voice of employers who advocate for sound public policy affecting the North Bay, demonstrate and grow leadership within the region, and collectively work for a more resilient, prosperous and equitable future. For more information: Call 707.283.0028 / E-mail info@northbayleadership.org