Jobs once held by lower earners may not come back

Just when the North Bay in a state known to endure wildfires, earthquakes and other natural and unnatural disasters thought it couldn’t be jarred into submission anymore, here’s this harsh pending reality.

California could be soon facing the economic disaster of lingering job losses among its lowest wage earners.

LaborCUBE, using Moody’s and Bureau of Labor data, stated 37% of California jobs — amounting to 6.4 million — are “at risk” of going away for good as the result of the COVID-19 crisis. Among the people who hold those jobs, 86% make under 40,000 a year.

Because many of these jobs are classified in the service industry such as leisure, hospitality and retail, the loss of those lower wage jobs could be felt particularly in the North Bay.

“That’s something we haven’t begun to reckon with,” said California Forward CEO Micah Weinberg during a June 11 webinar “Pandemic and the New Economic Abnormal in the North Bay and California,” which was put on by the North Bay Leadership Council. (The North Bay Business Journal was among the event sponsors.)

Weinberg’s California Forward, which is a statewide economic advocacy group, teamed up in the webinar with Chris Dombrowski, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s acting director of the Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz).

According to a McKinsey study, 24% of this probable job loss falls into the accommodations and food service industries, with 17% in retail and 11% in health care. These types of jobs are plentiful in the North Bay, making it poised to suffer more than most regions in the Golden State in the coming years as the pandemic tightens its grip on our way of life.

“(Tourism and hospitality) are industries the North Bay is dependent upon most heavily,” Weinberg said.

Leisure, hospitality and retail comprise 10% of California’s gross national product.

With the U.S. GDP dropping 3.9% this year compared to 2019, the trouble will only be prolonged as the economy sputters into recovery, according to Weinberg’s report.

“We see a more muted recovery. This is not going to be a flash in the pan,” Weinberg said. “We’ve dug ourselves into a hole. The economic crisis is just getting going.”

Full recovery is not expected until 2023.

An inequity comes about because a disproportionate number of at-risk, low-wage earners, renters and small business owners consist of people of color.

“Minority small business owners are hit extraordinarily hard,” he said, while further explaining these companies are often passed down between generations.

Weinberg calls the economic inequity “structural discrimination.”

Other aspects of the coronavirus outbreak’s resulting turmoil lie in the educational and health care arenas. The latter may surprise some considering health care and sick people go together. But treating COVID-19 patients is not a hospital’s main revenue driver. During the shutdown, countless elective surgeries were canceled among other procedures and visits.

The path forward leads to more challenges

Wear masks and avoid people were the calls of caution from the economic gurus. “This thing ain’t over,” Weinberg said.

In declaring the crisis has wiped away much success in a few months, the state’s economic watchdogs believe California residents will worsen their recovery chances if the virus spreads.

In the meantime, opportunity to reinvent the state again abounds.

“We need regulatory reform,” he said. Commerce can’t grow if it’s stifled by red tape.

“We have arcane permitting systems,” he said.

For example, if a health club needs to install a child care center — notably with some free-standing locations going under — it shouldn’t be deterred by government paperwork and restriction, he cited.

“We need to look at this with a new lens,” he said.

Infrastructure investment is also necessary, especially in terms of handling another ongoing crisis — housing.

“The lack of housing leads to overcrowded conditions and homelessness,” Weinberg said, referencing sure-fire ways to spread the virus.

Weinberg also suggested that perhaps local governments may see a way to survive by merging. These municipalities have already struggled with the burden of pension entitlements and now face what could be astronomical losses in sales and transient occupancy tax revenue.

Looming local government debacles are sure to be joined by the state, which faces a $55 billion budget shortfall in California’s $200 billion annual financial blueprint.

“This crisis unfolded in one month. It’s an incredible amount of work for the state legislatures to take on,” Dombrowski said.

The state economic official pointed to “the telework angle” as a “fascinating” part of the crisis outcome. He expressed encouragement that many companies are toying with significant portions of their workforces making these overnight sensational trends permanent.

Telework will lead to businesses reducing their office footprints. The hope is the transformation may end up converting commercial space not needed because brick-and-mortar retail shops have closed into residential property. One notion is industrial space may be more in demand as companies beef up their shipping and receiving operations, thus reverting back to the pre-World War II manufacturing days.

https://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com/northbay/napacounty/11028688-181/jobs-coronavirus-lost-north-bay

State of the North Bay: Resetting the Regional Economy

In the midst of the biggest disruption to the economy in the last century, how do we get through this pandemic and reset the economy to fix inequities and make it more resilient for all people?  While they don’t have all the answers, our two speakers will share ideas and hope for a better tomorrow.

Dr. Micah Weinberg, CEO, California Forward, and Chris Dombrowski, Acting Director for the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) will provide new insights and fresh data on the North Bay’s economic resilience and what key factors are shaping our future.

Join us to learn about the Next Normal and how we can work collectively to weather the turbulence of our economy and set the stage for the rise of the North Bay.

State of the North Bay Conference – Recover, Rebuild, Reset and Rise!

The virtual State of the North Bay Conference is on June 11th from 7:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.  In the midst of the biggest disruption to the economy in the last century, how do we get through this pandemic and reset the economy to fix inequities and make it more resilient for all people?  While they don’t have all the answers, our two speakers will share ideas and hope for a better tomorrow.

Dr. Micah Weinberg, CEO, California Forward, and Chris Dombrowski, Acting Director for the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) will provide new insights and fresh data on the North Bay’s economic resilience and what key factors are shaping our future.

Dr. Weinberg is the CEO of California Forward.  This cross-sector civic leadership group is committed to producing prosperity for all Californians in all of the state’s regions and to improving government performance and accountability.  Prior to joining CA Fwd, Dr. Weinberg was President of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, the leading think tank focused on the most critical economic and policy issues facing the Silicon Valley/San Francisco region, and was a Senior Research Fellow at New America.

Dr. Weinberg’s writing has appeared in diverse outlets from the New York Times to Policy Studies Journal, and he has appeared on Fox News and NPR.  Dr. Weinberg’s work focuses on increasing the dynamism, resilience and inclusiveness of communities in California and throughout the nation and world. This requires all people to have access to the building blocks of the California Dream including economic opportunity, health and wellbeing, affordable transportation, housing and lifelong education, and a healthy environment.

Chris Dombrowski is Acting Director for the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz). He has served as the Chief Deputy Director of GO-Biz since 2019.  He brings over a decade of state policy experience to his role in the Administration. He has served as a policy consultant to then Lt Governor Newsom in his Lieutenant Governor’s office, including work on the Lt Governor’s 2011 Jobs and Competitiveness report.  He previously served as the California Director of Operations for Next Gen Climate Action and as a legislative aide in the California Senate for both President pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg and President pro Tempore Don Perata.

Join us to learn about the Next Normal and how we can work collectively to weather the turbulence of our economy and set the stage for the rise of the North Bay.

Tickets are $25 each.  To purchase tickets, go to https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2020-state-of-the-north-bay-conference-tickets-104066708326

April Policy Watch

April – the time of Renewal, Rebirth, and now Reset? As we work our way through the shutdown, we have time to reflect and use the pause to imagine a better world when we are on the other side of this awful pandemic. I encourage you to seek out pause-itivity (positivity) while you are home and hope this edition of Policy Watch gives you some ideas on how we can reset our lives and our work to make the next normal one that has many improvements.  While we save lives and livelihoods now by staying home, we can also lay the groundwork for fixing inequities and solving problems that seemed intractable a month ago.

I am excited about that opportunity and encouraged that we can do so much when we work collectively.  This pause can be a great time of creativity and innovation if we follow historic patterns of disruption.  It can also be another community builder where we learn that we can depend on each other and that others are willing to sacrifice so much for their community.  We have new heroes now:  all of the health care professionals on the frontlines; the essential workers who stock the shelves and ring up our groceries; the delivery people who bring what we need so we can stay safe at home; the childcare workers who take care of the essential workers’ children so they can take care of us.  And The public safety workers, the government officials, the farm workers, the restaurant cooks — the long list of so many people who have been underappreciated and underpaid who are now our saviors.

Thank you for all the people who we are counting on to get us through the shutdown.  You can count on us to follow the guidelines to stop the spread.  We may not be able to touch hands, but we are touching hearts every day. We are stronger together!

Link to April Policy Watch

Sid Commons Approval Good for Petaluma

The recent Petaluma City Council approval of the Sid Commons project is welcome news for those seeking housing and particularly affordable housing, in Petaluma.

Despite opposition from some residents close to the project in the Payran area, this project clearly provides all the necessary attributes to be a significant contribution to Petaluma.

As President and CEO of the North Bay Leadership Council I am especially aware of the housing crunch facing employees in the region and those who are searching for high-quality housing.

As I watched Sid Commons move through the approval process, I have been very impressed with the developers and their commitment to building a project that is well-designed and hits the mark in the following ways:

The project was originally proposed with 278 units on a site that the General Plan designates as medium-density residential with residential densities up to 18 units per acre. In response to suggestions from neighbors and the planning commission, the project was redesigned at 180 units. With housing needs so apparent in Petaluma, the developers still chose to reduce the numbers of units to show good faith with the neighbors. Importantly as well, the project will make available at least 10% of the units to those who qualify as low-income individuals and families. The units, unlike in some projects, will be spread throughout the project so neighbors remain unaware of the income levels of others in the complex.

Developers early in the process walked the adjoining neighborhoods to ascertain the concerns and desires of those living in the area. After doing so, the project added a public park and a public dog park. The public park was added after people expressed that young children were playing in the streets rather than in a safe environment with playground equipment. Additional greenspace was added to the project by reducing the number of buildings from 22 to 12 and increasing the building height from two to three stories. An excellent use of the property to be sure.

Adding to the amenities are access to a river walk, public access to the river and in a first for Petaluma, a project that achieves Net Zero status, which means the project will produce all the energy it consumes utilizing a robust photovoltaic system that will be state-of-the-art. This production of on-site energy will assure Sid Commons is not drawing from any outside electrical capacity.

Out of an abundance of caution neighbors have expressed concerns about two very important areas, both of which I take very seriously. First, floodplain development and second, traffic circulation in the area. In both cases the developers have hit the issues head-on.

Sid Commons is not in the floodplain of the Petaluma River or its tributaries. Moreover, the developers in scaling back the project in terms of building count and specifically where they will be building on the project site, place this project over three hundred feet from the river and well outside the floodplain. Some neighbors who know better, continue to suggest this project is in the floodplain. It is not.

In connection with the false story of Sid Commons in the floodplain is the suggestion the project will be affected by or exacerbate high-level sea rise in Petaluma. In actuality, the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) categorically debunked that notion by reporting that if a 5.7- foot sea-rise, a 100-year flood event and a King tide all coincided at the same time, the Petaluma River would rise approximately one mile downstream of the site.

As to traffic, while the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) document reports that vehicular trips in the area do not create “significant” impacts at any intersection, the developers nonetheless have created a suite of traffic calming measures including stop signs, traffic circles and curb extensions to lower traffic speeds.

While it is true that people near a project typically express concerns, it is also true that additional housing needs to be built somewhere. In watching the planning commission and city council hearings I heard more than one neighbor say it was a good project, just not where it is being proposed.” I would ask, if not here, where? Perhaps another parcel in town that nearby neighbors will find fault with? The housing shortage in Petaluma is real. It is real in the region. In that light, responsible developers who are willing to modify their projects to attempt to ameliorate neighbor concerns should be applauded. I applaud Sid Commons and believe it will be an excellent addition to Petaluma.

North Bay Leadership Council is an employer-led public policy advocacy organization committed to providing leadership in ways to make the North Bay sustainable, prosperous and innovative.  The Council includes 50 leading employers in the region.  Our members represent a wide variety of businesses, non-profits and educational institutions, with a workforce in excess of 25,000. For more information please contact Cynthia Murray at 707.283.0028 or visit us at www.northbayleadership.org.

Contact:  Cynthia Murray, President and CEO

Email:  cmurray@northbayleadership.org

Phone:  (707) 283-0028

Community Organizations in Need

Side By Side

The young people that they serve already face difficult challenges in their day-to-day lives and the uncertainties presented by the COVID-19 outbreak are additional hurdles that they didn’t need. Many of their clients come from underprivileged homes who live paycheck to paycheck and are dependent on service sector jobs that may be impacted by the social distancing policies now in place.

Their clinicians and youth advocates will continue to provide counseling and link their clients to the resources that they need to stay safe and healthy. Their teachers at the Irene M. Hunt School will oversee distance learning and therapeutic services for their students. Side by Side will always be with the youth they serve through every adversity.

https://www.sidebysideyouth.org/donate/

North Bay Children’s Center 

Following the recommendations of Public Health Officials and NBCC School partners, all 13 NBCC locations closed their regular on-site school service operations as of 3/16/20. NBCC continues to pay teachers who are working from home, performing tasks to actively engage with families, providing early learning activities remotely, and connecting parents to food and basic need resources. NBCC is working in both counties with the EOC to provide emergency child care for health care first responders. Following the CDC/EOC guidelines, NBCC is providing “pop-up” child care for 36 infants and toddlers in Marin and 24 preschoolers in Sonoma.  To put that in perspective, normal operations serve more than 680 families across the region. In addition, NBCC operates a Saturday Food Pantry at its 934 C St. Novato location from 8-8:45am. Families in need of food, are welcome to pick up essentials without requiring documentation or prior approval to receive food.

Each year NBCC must raise $700K to fund the operating gap between their earned income and actual cost of care. Of that $700K roughly 10% comes from the corporate community. Support from local businesses has never been more important as they seek contributions to ensure NBCC’s vital services will be available once the shelter in place order is lifted.  They truly appreciate every philanthropic dollar that can come their way.

https://nbcc.net/make-donation-nbcc/

Becoming Independent

As we find ourselves collectively adjusting to these unprecedented times, here at BI we find reassurance remembering that our strength lies in our ability to creatively and effectively adapt. Like the people we support, BI is resilient, and though we would prefer not to be navigating these uncharted waters, we are prepared for the challenge. Since the “Shelter in Place” mandate, Becoming Independent has been working diligently to find ways to continue to support the 1,000+ individuals who regularly rely on our services by doing just that – adapting and evolving.

Donate to Becoming Independent and help support our vital services for individuals in need. Your support and generosity will help to ensure certainty in these uncertain times.

https://becomingindependent.org/donate/ 

Santa Rosa Junior College

This situation has a major impact on SRJC students beyond academics. In addition to missing important classes and valuable learning opportunities, many students will miss work and suffer financial challenges. Some will not have access to food, shelter, medical and mental health care, childcare, and other support resources and services that SRJC normally provides. Many students are already working multiple jobs just to afford the high cost of living in Sonoma County. Now they are facing additional financial hardship as businesses close, forcing them to do without regular income.

Your help can make all the difference. Make a gift to the SRJC Crisis Response Fund today. This fund will support the most vulnerable students by providing grants and scholarships that will help them get through these difficult days. Working with their college partners, students will have access to funds to help pay rent, buy food, and support their families as they go without work or access to important services.

https://santarosajc.ejoinme.org/crisisfund?bblinkid=210092622&bbemailid=19955963&bbejrid=1407011187

College of Marin

The College of Marin students will be similarly impacted by the Coronavirus. Just as stated above many students will be facing financial hardships and could use your support.

https://marin.secure.nonprofitsoapbox.com/giving

Catholic Charities of Santa Rosa

In response to this unfolding crisis, they are launching the Essential Services Fund.

With this fund, they will be able to provide expanded services including:

  • Food access for people who are facing hunger due to COVID-19
  • Financial assistance for people who are at risk of losing housing due to COVID-19
  • Safe and sanitary shelters and permanent supportive housing with newly expanded health precautions in place
  • Services for people over 65 who are experiencing isolation

To adapt their existing services and respond to urgent new needs, they’ll need significant additional resources.

Catholic Charities of Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo

During this unprecedented time of Coronavirus and with the shelter-in-place order, the needs in our community and our challenges are greater than ever. Our Catholic Charities programs and services are critical and essential.

Their teams are on the front lines, bravely and tirelessly supporting those in our community who are most vulnerable and at-risk. Our essential services include housing and caring for people with HIV/AIDS and other chronic illnesses. They support aging adults, adults with disabilities, and immigrants. They provide food and care to seniors and families experiencing homelessness. And give safe harbor and resources to children who have experienced trauma.

These programs remain open and their dedicated employees continue to care for our neighbors in accordance with all the safety measures to keep them and those being served safe.

Like never before, they need your support. Please give today to help ensure we can meet the needs of our community.

https://www.catholiccharitiessf.org/how-to-help/donate-2019.html

Dominican

Dominican is sharing medical supplies to Marin County Office of Emergency Services (750 N-95 masks, 1000 sterile tubes for COVID-19 testing). They are seeking gifts to the Dominican Angel Fund, which supports emergency needs of students (travel funds to get home, laptop purchase for our move to online education, any non-tuition need that arises). People can make a gift here.

Redwood Empire Food Bank

You can help feed our neighbors in need during these difficult times. Donate now! 

In order to help combat hardships brought on by COVID-19, the Redwood Empire Food Bank has activated Station 3990, their disaster relief program. As part of this activation, they have partnered with Santa Rosa City Schools to initiate drive-thru food distributions at 13 schools across Sonoma County. At these distributions, the schools will provide meals for the children, while the Redwood Empire Food Bank will supply groceries for their families to take home.

If there’s a hungry child at home, you can be sure there is also a hungry family. These 13 drive-thru school distribution sites are an extension of the school lunch program — redesigned to help the entire family in addition to the child. For many low-income children, their school meal is the only meal they’ll get all day. Once again, Station 3990 enables the Redwood Empire Food Bank to do even more.

Canine Companions for Independence

Disability doesn’t vanish in times of crisis – the life-changing work of Canine Companions® exceptional assistance dogs must continue.

While all six of Canine Companions’ training centers are closed during these challenging times, our assistance dogs are being trained remotely, virtual puppy classes are being held, fundraising efforts continue, and we are working with clients to transition their placement trainings to web-based instruction.

We are confident in our ability to work and advance our mission; however, support from our community is greatly needed.

The majority of our graduates are being isolated right now and have compromised immune systems. Many cannot receive assistance from others. Our graduates rely on their assistance dogs to: retrieve a cell phone to make important phone calls, pick up the remote so they watch the news, pull open the refrigerator door so they can prepare a meal, and so much more. Our expertly trained assistance dogs are making a difference every day.

We must move our mission forward. There are over 400 people waiting to be matched with a Canine Companions assistance dog.

We are counting on you to keep our operations going. Now more than ever, we need your support.

http://cci.org/nbl

Another great way to support your favorite business during this extraordinary time is to buy gift certificates to be used at a future date. In particular, hotels and restaurants could use your support through gift certificates or ordering takeout. We can help each other if we work together!

Northern California Public Media Virtual Town Hall on the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Northern California Public Media hosted a Virtual Town Hall, in partnership with Sonoma County, to share information about Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) on Wednesday, March 11, 2020. News Director Steve Mencher and Assistant News Director Adia White moderated the discussion with Supervisor Susan Gorin (Chair, Sonoma County Board of Supervisors), Chris Godley (Director, Sonoma County Emergency Management), and Dr. Sundari Mase (Sonoma County Interim Public Health Officer) who presented information and answered questions from viewers in this one hour live news special.

A link to the live stream is below. Please watch for vital information on how to protect yourself from Covid-19.

Coronavirus: What You Need to Know

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejJ-bStXlgA

California Employment Development Department Issues New Coronavirus Guidance

An outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has been identified starting in Wuhan, China. There is no evidence of widespread transmission of COVID-19 in California at this time. While investigations to learn more about the virus are ongoing, workers and employers should review their health and safety procedures to help prevent exposure to the virus.

The EDD provides a variety of support services to individuals affected by COVID-19 in California. For faster and more convenient access to those services, we encourage the use of our online options.

Workers

Sick or Quarantined

If you’re unable to work due to having or being exposed to COVID-19 (certified by a medical professional), you can file a Disability Insurance (DI) claim. DI provides short-term benefit payments to eligible workers who have a full or partial loss of wages due to a non-work-related illness, injury, or pregnancy. Benefit amounts are approximately 60-70 percent of wages (depending on income) and range from $50-$1,300 a week.

For guidance on the disease, visit the California Department of Public Health website.

Caregiving

If you’re unable to work because you are caring for an ill or quarantined family member with COVID-19 (certified by a medical professional), you can file a Paid Family Leave (PFL) claim. PFL provides up to six weeks of benefit payments to eligible workers who have a full or partial loss of wages because they need time off work to care for a seriously ill family member or to bond with a new child. Benefit amounts are approximately 60-70 percent of wages (depending on income) and range from $50-$1,300 a week.

Reduced Work Hours

If your employer has reduced your hours or shut down operations due to COVID-19, you can file an Unemployment Insurance (UI) claim. UI provides partial wage replacement benefit payments to workers who lose their job or have their hours reduced, through no fault of their own. Workers who are temporarily unemployed due to COVID-19 and expected to return to work with their employer within a few weeks are not required to actively seek work each week. However, they must remain able and available and ready to work during their unemployment for each week of benefits claimed and meet all other eligibility criteria. Eligible individuals can receive benefits that range from $40-$450 per week.

Employers

Workplace Health and Safety

For information on protecting workers from COVID-19, refer to the Cal/OSHA Guidance on Coronavirus.

Businesses and employers can visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website for help with planning and responding to COVID-19.

Reduced Work Hours

Employers experiencing a slowdown in their businesses or services as a result of the coronavirus impact on the economy may apply for the UI Work Sharing Program. This program allows employers to seek an alternative to layoffs — retaining their trained employees by reducing their hours and wages that can be partially offset with UI benefits. Workers of employers who are approved to participate in the Work Sharing Program receive the percentage of their weekly UI benefit amount based on the percentage of hours and wages reduced, not to exceed 60 percent.

Visit Work Sharing Program to learn more about its benefits for employers and employees, and how to apply.

Potential Closure or Layoffs

Employers planning a closure or major layoffs as a result of the coronavirus can get help through the Rapid Response program. Rapid Response teams will meet with you to discuss your needs, help avert potential layoffs, and provide immediate on-site services to assist workers facing job losses. For more information, refer to the Rapid Response Services for Businesses Fact Sheet (DE 87144RRB) (PDF) or contact your local America’s Job Center of CaliforniaSM.

Tax Assistance

Employers experiencing a hardship as a result of COVID-19 may request up to a 60-day extension of time from the EDD to file their state payroll reports and/or deposit state payroll taxes without penalty or interest. A written request for extension must be received within 60 days from the original delinquent date of the payment or return.

For questions, employers may call the EDD Taxpayer Assistance Center.

  • Toll-free from the U.S. or Canada: 1-888-745-3886
  • Hearing impaired (TTY): 1-800-547-9565
  • Outside the U.S. or Canada: 1-916-464-3502

Resources

To learn about employee leave options, compensation, and salary, visit the Labor Commissioner’s Office FAQs on Coronavirus Disease.

For information about job protection and employment discrimination, visit the Department of Fair Employment and Housing website.

Consult these additional resources for up-to-date information.

Coronavirus: Nine Reasons to be Reassured

The coronavirus epidemic plainly poses an exceptionally serious global problem: in a few short weeks, it has spread from China to more than 80 countries, infecting more than 100,000 people so far and causing more than 3,400 deaths.

But as we are hit with minute-by-minute updates from around the world, experiencing the advance of Covid-19 in real time – news alerts, huge headlines, social media hysteria – there’s a risk that we might lose some essential context.

Yes, this virus is obviously a massive challenge: medical, political and – perhaps most strikingly at present – social and economic. But it is worth remembering the world has never had better tools to fight it, and that if we are infected, we are unlikely to die from it.

Here, courtesy of a number of scientists but mainly Ignacio López-Goñi, a professor of microbiology and virology at the University of Navarra in Spain, are what might hopefully prove a few reassuring facts about the new coronavirus:

  • We know what it is. As López-Goñi wrote for the Conversation France, the virus causing cases of severe pneumonia in Wuhan was identified within seven days of the official announcement on 31 December, and, three days after that, the gene sequence was available. HIV, by contrast, took two years to identify after it first appeared in mid-1981, López-Goni noted. We also know the virus is natural, that it is related to a virus found in bats, and that it can mutate, but does not appear to do so very often.
  • We can test for it. By 13 January – three days after the gene sequence was published – a reliable test was available, developed by scientists at the department of virology at Berlin’s Charité university hospital with help from experts in Rotterdam, London and Hong Kong.
  • We know it can be contained (albeit at considerable cost). China’s draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working. On Thursday 120 new cases were reported in Wuhan, the lowest figure for six weeks, and, for the first time since the start of the outbreak, none at all in the rest of Hubei province. Several Chinese provinces have had no new cases for a fortnight and more are reopening their schools. In many countries, infections are in defined clusters, which should allow them to be more readily contained.
  • Catching it is not that easy (if we are careful) and we can kill it quite easily (provided we try). Frequent, careful hand washing, as we now all know, is the most effective way to stop the virus being transmitted, while a solution of ethanol, a solution of hydrogen peroxide or a solution of bleach will disinfect surfaces. To be considered at high risk of catching the coronavirus you need to live with, or have direct physical contact with, someone infected, be coughed or sneezed on by them (or pick up a used tissue), or be in face-to-face contact, within two metres, for more than 15 minutes. We’re not talking about passing someone in the street.
  • In most cases, symptoms are mild, and young people are at very low risk. According to a study of 45,000 confirmed infections in China, 81% of cases caused only minor illness, 14% of patients had symptoms described as “severe”, and just 5% were considered “critical”, with about half of those resulting in death. Only 3% of cases concern people under 20, children seem barely affected by the virus at all, and the mortality rate for the under-40s is about 0.2%. The rate rises in the over-65s, reaching nearly 15% in the over-80s, especially those with pre-existing heart or lung conditions. Calculating mortality rates during an ongoing epidemic is hard because it is not clear how many mild or asymptomatic cases have been tested for, but the best estimate we have for the coronavirus so far is 1.4% – somewhere between 1918 Spanish flu and 2009 swine flu.
  • People are recovering from itAs the daily count maintained by the Johns Hopkins CSSE shows, thousands of people around the world are making confirmed recoveries from the coronavirus every day.

Coronavirus updates

  • Hundreds of scientific articles have already been written about it. Type Covid-19 or Sars-19 into the search engine of the US national library of medicine’s PubMed website and you will find, barely five weeks after the emergence of the virus, 539 references to papers about it, dealing with vaccines, therapies, epidemiology, diagnosis and clinical practice. That’s an exponentially faster publication rate than during the Sars epidemic, López-Goñi notes – and most publications’ coronavirus articles are free to access.
  • Vaccine prototypes exist. Commercial pharmaceutical and biotechnology labs such as Moderna, Inovio, Sanofi and Novavax, as well as academic groups such as one at the University of Queensland in Australia – many of which were already working on vaccines for similar Sars-related viruses – have preventive vaccine prototypes in development, some of which will soon be ready for human testing (although their efficacy and safety will of course take time to establish).
  • Dozens of treatments are already being tested. By mid-February, more than 80 clinical trials were under way for antiviral treatments, according to Nature magazine, and most have already been used successfully in treating other illnesses. Drugs such as remdesivir (Ebola, Sars), chloroquine (malaria), lopinavir and ritonavir (HIV), and baricitinib (rheumatoid polyarthritis) are all being trialled on patients who have contracted the coronavirus, some as a result of the application of artificial intelligence.

• This article was amended on 7 March 2020. An earlier version wrongly stated that “a solution of ethanol, hydrogen peroxide and bleach will disinfect surfaces”. It is dangerous to combine such substances. It now states correctly that “a solution of ethanol, a solution of hydrogen peroxide or a solution of bleach” will disinfect surfaces.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured?__twitter_impression=true

North Bay Leadership Council’s Ballot Measure and Candidate Endorsements

NBLC’s Ballot Measures Endorsements

SUPPORT:  Measure I:  SMART Train Sales Tax Extension

In 2008, voters Marin and Sonoma counties had the foresight to create SMART.  They voted to build a modern train system to bridge county lines and connect to the ferry in Larkspur.  They wanted a green transportation system, a way to travel without sitting in traffic and fewer cars on Highway 101.  SMART has delivered on that promise – despite serious obstacles.  When the recession hit in 2009, the floor dropped out of the bond market, slashing the projected $455 million in revenue to $298 million over the last 10 years.  Despite this setback, SMART still got a world class transportation system up and running by leveraging $328 million in regional, state and federal matching funds.  So far, SMART has carried over 1.7 million passengers, including over 6,300 passengers who require wheelchair access and 164,000 bicyclists.

In December, SMART opened the Larkspur station to connect to the ferry. In January, SMART revamped the commuter schedule to run trains every half hour. Now, SMART is at a crossroads. Measure I is critical to SMART’s future.  Measure I would extend SMART’s ¼ of one cent sales tax with NO TAX INCREASE.

Measure I would ensure SMART’s financial survival and allow restructuring of construction debt. This would save $12.2 million annually, fully funding operations from Larkspur to Windsor for the next 30 years.

Vote YES on Measure I to:

  • Take hundreds of thousands of car trips off Highway 101 every year
  • Support SMART service to additional cities
  • Increase the frequency of SMART trains
  • Fund safety enhancements along the rail line
  • Add additional parking to SMART stations
  • Build more bicycle and walking paths connecting SMART stations

We finally have a modern train system for Marin and Sonoma counties. Please don’t let one family with a fat checkbook dictate the future of transportation in the North Bay.   Vote “Yes” on Measure I to keep SMART rolling and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. http://staygreenkeepsmart.org/

SUPPORT:  Measure C – Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority

Fire safety improvements are needed as climate change impacts the North Bay.  The tax being proposed would amount to 10 cents per building square foot for improved residential and commercial space. An exemption would be provided for low-income seniors. The tax could be increased up to 3% annually to adjust for inflation.  Perhaps most vital to its broad support, the tax, which is estimated to bring in $19.3 million annually, would sunset in 10 years.

Sixty percent of the revenue generated by the tax would be dedicated to core functions such as vegetation management, wildfire detection, evacuation improvements, grants and public education. Twenty percent would be used for annual defensible space and home hardening evaluations, and another 20% would be used for wildfire prevention efforts designed for specific locales. The authority will divide Marin into five zones: Ross Valley, San Rafael, West Marin, Novato and Southern Marin. Its board will consist of a representative from each of the 17 participating agencies.  Another provision assures that at least 80% of the revenue generated for vegetation management by each operational zone shall be allocated within the respective zone.  The measure’s proponents pledged that the authority would utilize an “environmental/climate change lens” while doing its work.

SUPPORT:  Measure G – Sonoma County Fire Safety and Emergency Response Improvements

Again, the ability to fight and prevent fires is of tremendous importance in the North Bay.  The measure will generate approximately $51 million annually, which will be distributed across the county’s more than 30 fire districts, with the aim of improving alert, warning, and siren systems; vegetation management inspection and mitigation programs; replacement of aging infrastructure and equipment; and the recruitment and retention of firefighters.

“We need more firefighters,” Mark Heine, Sonoma County Fire District Fire Chief, told the supervisors. Heine pointed out that there are about 375 firefighters in Sonoma County, but it took a force of about 4,000 firefighters, some coming from as far away as Washington and Arizona, via statewide mutual aid agreements, to stall the Kincade Fire. The new sales tax would provide funding to hire 200 additional full-time personnel across the county, including firefighters and battalion chiefs. The increase in firefighters is a top priority as districts aim for three-person staffing on engines, which is closer to the national standard of four people.In addition, the tax will provide the funding for the installment of seven new fire inspectors to carry out a more robust vegetation management program throughout the county. Local fire agencies will also receive an influx of funding so their staff can provide vegetation inspection and remediation in their jurisdictions. Additionally, the sales tax will fund a 10- to 12-person regional “fuels crew” to perform vegetation management, reinforce evacuation routes, and construct fuel breaks throughout the county. The home location of the regional crew has not yet been decided.

The resulting funding from the measure will be divided by percentage, based on district size and need. Fire districts that have specific challenges recruiting and retaining full-time firefighters will receive additional funding to help those efforts. A portion of monies raised will go to the county’s Department of Emergency Management to improve the county’s alert and warning systems, not just for wildfire, but any natural disaster including earthquake, tsunami and flood. Funds will be dedicated to improving digital technologies like the Wireless Emergency Alert system, SoCo Alert, and Nixle notifications, and to construct, operate and maintain a network of emergency sirens.

Overall, the measure would raise funds to build nine new fire stations throughout the county, move the location of eight existing fire stations, and retrofit or remodel another eight existing fire stations.

Current jurisdictional boundaries may also be going away soon. One and one-quarter of the proposed sales tax will provide funding to incentivize fire district consolidation, a move Kenwood, Glen Ellen, Mayacamas and Schell-Vista are currently studying.  As long as a district is “working toward consolidation,” it will receive funding – although that can be modified after three years.

NBLC’s Candidate Endorsements

Marin, Napa and Sonoma Counties have primaries for Board of Supervisors’ races in March.  NLBC has recommends the candidates below.  If the race is uncontested, we are taking no position.  If candidates have taking a voting pledge, we have a policy of not endorsing as we fear that means that votes have been promised before hearing from the public.  And in some races, we didn’t endorse because there was no candidate that reflected NLBC’s commitment to supporting fair and balanced voices that support more workforce housing, improved transportation, support for business and economic competitiveness and the development of a workforce whose skills and talents match the jobs our members are creating.

Napa County:

District 5 – Belia Ramos (Inc.):  Support    Ramos grew up in St. Helena, worked as an attorney and founded Raise The Bar to help prepare applicants for the California Bar Exam.  She was elected Supervisor in 2016.  Ramos was recently elected  as vice president of the Association of Bay Area Governments which focused on housing issues.  During her supervisor term, Ramos has drawn attention to various issues she said are important to her district, among them housing, traffic in the south county and noise heard in American Canyon and other areas from bird-scaring propane canons in vineyards.  Ramos said her focus during a second term would continue to be on such things as housing availability and affordability, land use and transportation.

District 4 – Alfredo Pedroza (Inc.):  Support   Pedroza has been a balanced voice on the Napa Board and is a rising star.  He is pro-business, against accelerating the minimum wage and didn’t sign any union pledges.  He is a housing advocate and called for streamlining the approval process and building on surplus County land.  He is currently the vice chair of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.  Pedroza is a problem-solver and results-oriented.  He used to work for Redwood Credit Union.

Sonoma County:

 District 5:  Lynda Hopkins (Inc.):  Support   Hopkins has been working hard in her first term and deserves a second one.  She is a strong supporter of housing and finding solutions to address homelessness and mental health services.  As a small business owner, she supports business and a strong economy.  As a parent, she is a great advocate for children, child care and education.  Hopkins is balanced, fair and hard-working.

Marin County: 

District 3:  Stephanie Moulton-Peters:  Support   Moulton-Peters served on the Mill Valley City Council for  2 years and has been chair of the Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM).  She supports more housing, currently serving on the Mill Valley Housing Advisory Task Force, and continuous improvement of the transportation infrastructure.  Moulton-Peters also is a champion of addressing the impacts of climate change and a healthy economy.